I recently came across a blog post by Ben Meer featuring a striking World War II-era story that highlights the importance—and impact—of thinking differently. Though my schedule has been packed and I have not had a chance to post lately, I thought this topic is essential for all leaders to reflect upon.
The post included an image of a B-17 bomber, showing the locations where returning planes had been hit during missions. The military’s initial plan was to reinforce these areas, reasoning that bolstering them would make the planes more resilient.
However, a statistician named Abraham Wald brought a fresh perspective to the problem. He observed that the data came only from planes that survived their missions. The damage visible on these planes, Wald reasoned, was not where the aircraft were most vulnerable. Instead, the truly critical areas were those where hits caused planes to fail and never return. By focusing on these unseen vulnerabilities, Wald’s insight likely saved countless B-17 crews in the latter stages of the war.
This mental approach, known as “inversion,” involves flipping a problem on its head to consider the opposite of the expected perspective. Wald’s ability to invert his thinking helped uncover insights others had missed.
Applying Inversion to Personal Growth and Leadership
Ben Meer illustrates how inversion can also be applied to personal growth. For example, instead of asking, “How can I achieve success?”, one might invert the question to ask, “How can I avoid failure?” While the goal remains the same, this shift in perspective opens up new strategies and solutions.
For leaders, Wald’s story is a powerful reminder to challenge conventional thinking and seek alternative explanations. How can we practice this in our own work? One effective method is to embrace diverse perspectives. People view problems differently based on their experiences, and incorporating varied viewpoints can reveal blind spots and lead to better decisions.
Call to Action
I encourage you to reflect on how you, as a leader, can adopt the mental model of inversion in your decision-making and problem-solving. By questioning assumptions and exploring unconventional approaches, you can achieve more effective outcomes.
As always, I invite you to share your thoughts and ideas in the comments section below. Together, we grow by learning from each other’s insights and experiences.
Great analogy. Too often we look at what we think the data is telling us, instead of lookng at the data for what it is not telling us. Seeing what we are missing and creating solutions to solve those problems will allow us to constantly improve.
Agreed, Greg. Taking the time to figure out what we are missing is an often overlooked exercise that can lead to more effective decisions and outcomes.